The 2024 midterm cycle marked a rare high point for the Republican Party in El paso county. Both the presidential ticket and the district-attorney race finished within 15 percentage points of their Democratic rivals – a dramatic swing in a county where GOP defeats of 25 points or more had become routine. Analysts at the time warned that the surge hinted at a possible realignment of Hispanic voters across the Southwest.
New data resets the narrative
A poll commissioned by the ACLU of Texas and fielded by Change Research between Aug. 25 and Sept. 6 provides a sharply different picture. The online survey covered 410 El Paso County adults and an additional 621 residents of the Rio Grande Valley counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy, for a total sample of 1,031. Weighted against 2024 presidential-vote data, the poll carries a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points for the full sample and ±4.8 points for the El Paso subset.
Key findings: Democrats hold a two-to-one advantage
When respondents were asked about the two headline races on the November 3 Texas ballot – the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico and the governor’s race pitting incumbent Republican Greg Abbott against Democrat Gina Hinojosa – Democrats led by roughly 2-to-1 among El Paso County participants. The gap widened among those who described themselves as “likely or certain” voters, suggesting that the party advantage could grow as Election Day approaches.
Trump’s popularity continues to wane
In 2024, former President Donald Trump captured 42 % of the El Paso County vote – the best Republican presidential showing in two decades. The new poll, however, records only 31 % of adults approving his job performance, a level more akin to his 32 % share in 2020 than his 2024 surge. Across the five border counties surveyed, just 17 % of respondents who voted for Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his presidency, while only 1 % of Harris voters express approval of Trump.
What the numbers mean for the November contests
The stark Democratic leads translate into a sobering outlook for GOP candidates in the upcoming Senate and governor races. In the four Rio Grande Valley counties, Trump secured 52 % of the 2024 vote – a historic high for a Republican presidential candidate – yet only 36 % of those surveyed approve of his performance. If similar sentiment carries over to down-ballot contests, both Paxton and Abbott could struggle to improve on the double-digit deficits they suffered in 2022.
Historical context emphasizes the uphill battle
Since 1900, Republicans have won only three countywide elections in El Paso – a U.S. House seat and a school-superintendent race in 1962, and a district-court judgeship in 1984. The last time the party captured a texas house seat in the county was 2010, and the final Commissioners Court victory came in 2014. Most local contests have been uncontested by GOP nominees, and the 2026 ballot lists only a handful of Republican candidates for county judge, district courts, Congress and the state legislature.
Media framing under scrutiny
Local outlet El Paso Matters recently interpreted the same poll as evidence that El Paso Republicans face steep challenges in November. Critics note that the survey primarily measured attitudes toward immigration enforcement not direct candidate preferences or voter intent. Moreover, the article did not link to the full poll methodology, leaving readers unable to verify the weighting, question wording, or the advocacy role of the ACLU sponsor. By presenting the poll’s immigration-focus results as a definitive forecast of GOP electoral prospects, the coverage risks conflating policy sentiment with voting behavior – a distinction that scholars and journalists alike consider essential for accurate election reporting.
