The political landscape in Texas is undergoing a significant shift as the 2026 midterm elections approach. In a state known for its Republican dominance, a new poll has revealed a surprising deadlock between the Democratic and Republican candidates for the U.S. Senate. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, and Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee and current state attorney general, are each garnering 47% support among likely voters, according to a recent survey by the New York Times/Siena College.
This poll, conducted between June 19 and 27, highlights the intense competition in a race that could determine the balance of power in the Senate. The survey, known for its accuracy, suggests that Talarico has successfully transformed what was initially seen as an uphill battle into a closely contested race.
Key Findings from the New York Times/Siena Poll
The poll, which surveyed 656 likely voters, revealed several interesting trends. Talarico appears to be more popular among women, younger demographics, and voters in urban areas such as Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and the southern part of the state. In contrast, Paxton leads among men, older voters, and those in rural areas.
One of the most notable findings is the significant gender gap, with Talarico leading among female voters by 18 points and Paxton ahead among male voters by the same margin. Additionally, Talarico enjoys strong support from Hispanic voters, winning 61% of their votes, and leads Paxton by 27 points among independents.
The Impact of Scandals and Personal Issues
Ken Paxton’s campaign has been overshadowed by a series of scandals and personal issues that have raised questions about his character and moral values. In 2026, the texas house of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton, although he was later acquitted of all charges by the state Senate. Additionally, Paxton is currently going through a messy divorce, with his wife Angela citing “biblical grounds” based on “recent discoveries” in her filing last year.
The poll indicates that fewer than four in 10 respondents believe Paxton has good character or the right kind of moral values. Half of the respondents also said Paxton is too extreme, which could pose a challenge for his campaign. Furthermore, Paxton’s support is below the 50% of respondents who prefer Republicans to control the Senate next year.
Talarico’s Rising Star and Fundraising Success
James Talarico, a 37-year-old former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has emerged as a rising star in the Democratic Party. He topped progressive firebrand and vocal Trump critic Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March Democratic Senate primary and has since become the top Democratic fundraiser in Senate races, raising a massive $27 million in the first three months of this year.
Despite his success, Talarico has faced criticism from Republicans, who have targeted his past controversial comments, including suggesting that “God is nonbinary” or that there are six biological sexes. In his victory speech last month, Paxton mocked Talarico with derogatory nicknames, emphasizing the stark contrast between the two candidates.
The poll also suggests that the Democratic Party brand may impede Talarico, with a majority of respondents seeing Democrats as too far to the left. Following a divisive primary with Crockett, the poll indicates that 12% of Black voters have a negative opinion of Talarico, who is White.
However, the economy could be a significant factor in Talarico’s favor. Sixty percent of those questioned gave a thumbs down to how President Donald Trump was handling cost-of-living issues, which could impact Paxton’s campaign. Talarico has been highlighting economic concerns over soaring prices, emphasizing the financial struggles faced by many Texans.
As the race tightens, both candidates are gearing up for a fierce battle in the coming months. The outcome of this election could have far-reaching implications for the political landscape in Texas and beyond.