Texas is currently under a significant flooding threat as heavy rainfall continues to batter the state. The combination of deep tropical moisture, a weak southward-moving front, and the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina has created a perfect storm for widespread flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for a large part of Texas, including 112 counties, with the potential for serious flooding issues in some areas.
The situation is particularly critical in the Waco and Hewitt areas, where severe rainfall has already led to widespread flooding. The KWTX First Alert Weather Team reports that central and southern McLennan County experienced the highest rainfall totals, likely ranging between three and five inches. Multiple vehicles were stranded in floodwaters on I-35 southbound between mile markers 330 and 327, prompting rescue operations by first responders.
Waco and Hewitt Under Water
In Waco, major flooding was reported in several areas, including Imperial and Winchell Dr., Chapel and Old Lorena Rd., Sanger Ave., Bagby Ave., Lake Air and Valley Mills Dr., Wooded Acres Dr., N. 19th St., Bosque Blvd., Waco Dr., and Hewitt Dr. The northbound lanes of I-35 were reopened late Sunday night, but the southbound lanes remained closed as Texas DPS worked to help stalled motorists drive around the flooded portion.
In Hewitt, the stormwater flooded streets and parking lots along Hewitt Drive. The Hewitt Police Department urged residents to stay home and avoid travel, emphasizing the danger of driving through flooded roadways. Officers were actively monitoring conditions and responding to weather-related incidents throughout the city.
The Broader Flooding Threat
The flooding potential is increasing across Texas over the next several days. The biggest concern is that a few areas may get hammered by repeated storms or slow-moving heavy rain bands, leading to serious flooding issues. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for a large part of Texas, including portions of the Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, South Texas, the Coastal Bend, the Rio Grande Plains, the Rio Grande Valley, the Brazos Valley, and nearby areas.
Cities and towns in or near the watch area include Del Rio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Austin, Georgetown, Round Rock, Temple, Belton, Bryan, College Station, Houston, Victoria, Port Aransas, Galveston, Corpus Christi, Laredo, Eagle Pass, McAllen, Brownsville, and many surrounding communities. The southeastern three-quarters of Texas is hot, humid, and loaded with moisture, which can produce very heavy rain in a short period of time.
Tonight into Monday Morning: A Problem Window
One of the first periods of concern is tonight into early Monday morning. A weak southward-moving front may help focus a band of heavy thunderstorms somewhere across Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country, or South Central Texas. This band could set up near Interstate 35 or closer to Highway 281. Wherever it sets up, storms may sit or repeatedly move over the same areas, leading to potential flooding.
A few spots could pick up 5 to 9 inches of rain in only a few hours if storms train or stall. This will not happen to everyone, but where it does, flooding could become serious quickly. If the band sets up over the eastern Hill Country, rapid rises on creeks and streams will be a major concern. If it sets up along the I-35 corridor, urban flash flooding could become a problem in a hurry.
Monday and Tuesday Bring More Rounds
More rounds of showers and storms are expected Monday into Tuesday across the southeastern half of Texas. The issue is repetition. The first round wets the ground, the second round has less room to soak in, and by the third round, it may not take much additional rain to create flooding problems. This setup deserves more attention than a typical summer thunderstorm day.
Not every storm will be severe. This is not mainly a hail and tornado setup. This is a heavy rain and flooding setup, with lightning and gusty winds also in the mix. The remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina have been moving across Mexico, sending deep tropical moisture northward into Texas, which is one reason our atmosphere is so loaded right now.
Tropical Moisture from Cristina Adds Another Problem
Those remnants are expected to move toward the northwestern Gulf this week. There is now at least a non-zero chance the disturbance could become a little more organized near the Texas coast. The National Hurricane Center has given the system a chance to become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. However, the name does not matter. The impact for Texas is the same basic concern: heavy rain.
If that moisture hangs near the Texas coast and slowly moves north Tuesday through Friday, we may deal with another multi-day round of very heavy rain along the South Texas coast, Middle Texas coast, Upper Texas coast, and adjacent inland areas. This includes Brownsville, McAllen, Corpus Christi, Port Aransas, Victoria, Houston, Galveston, Beaumont, Lufkin, and surrounding areas.
Coastal Heavy Rain Threat May Last into Late Week
The coastal rain threat may become more significant Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The exact track of the system is unknown, but the National Hurricane Center has placed an Area to Watch in the northwestern Gulf. While the chance of a named tropical storm or even depression forming remains very low, the dangerous flood threat remains the same.
Pacific and Gulf moisture teaming up as a firehose across the South will pose a mounting risk along the Texas coastline. Depending on the track and timing of the potent area of spin, we may still be tracking flash flooding through Friday, as some models show the system causing major impacts in the South into next weekend.
