The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Central Texas, effective from 7 p.m. Sunday until Tuesday evening. This alert encompasses counties such as Blanco, Llano, Mason, Gillespie, Burnet, Williamson, Travis, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop, Fayette, and Lee. The impending weather system is expected to bring substantial rainfall, with some areas potentially receiving over eight inches of rain.
The combination of tropical moisture from the remnants of Pacific Storm Christina and a weak cold front is set to trigger a marked increase in rain and storm chances. While the cold front will not bring freezing temperatures, it will push afternoon highs into the 80s, below the seasonal average, by Monday and Tuesday. This shift will act to ‘squeeze out’ deep moisture currently surging in from the Gulf of Mexico.
Timeline of the Weather Event
The most active weather is anticipated from Sunday into Monday, with the peak of daytime heating driving heavy downpours and scattered thunderstorms. There is a widespread Level 2 risk for localized flooding on Sunday and Monday as the system moves through. Residents are encouraged to remain weather aware and monitor local forecasts as the region enters a pattern that is expected to stay wetter than average for the next 8 to 14 days.
Sunday
On Sunday, highs are expected to reach the mid-to-lower 90s with isolated morning activity turning to scattered showers and storms by the afternoon and evening.
Monday
Monday is projected to be a much more active day with heavy downpours and highs limited to the mid-to-upper 80s. Rain potential is expected to persist into the night.
Tuesday
Rain and storm chances will begin to taper off on Tuesday as the system shifts to the south and east.
Wednesday
Wednesday will see a brief lull in activity with ‘very slim’ rain chances before storm probabilities begin to rise again for the second half of the week.
Rainfall Accumulations and Humidity
Widespread rainfall accumulations are projected to reach 1 to 2 inches through Wednesday, with totals expected to climb further as the week progresses. Despite the brief dip in temperatures, forecasters warned that high humidity will remain, keeping conditions ‘muggy’ for the foreseeable future.
The wet weather is beneficial for the ongoing drought, but an excessive amount of rain at once can be dangerous. Residents are advised to avoid rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying, flood-prone locations, as these spots can flood quickly in a torrential downpour.
As the weak mid-level circulation from Storm Christina moves up the Texas Coast toward Louisiana by the end of the week, the heaviest rain will consolidate toward the coast on Wednesday and Thursday, where 7 inches or more of rain will be very possible.
