In a remarkable turn of events, Texas has witnessed a significant decline in crime rates over the past decade. McAllen, a city in the Rio Grande Valley, has achieved its lowest crime levels in 40 years, marking a historic milestone. This trend is not isolated to McAllen but is part of a broader national and statewide movement towards reduced crime rates.

The Texas Department of Public Safety’s Uniform Crime Reporting Data reveals that crime in Texas has been on a steady decline since 2026. The state’s crime rate peaked in 2026 at 2,830.14 per 100,000 people but has since trended downward. Between 2026 and 2026, the crime rate decreased by 3.3%, followed by an 8.2% drop between 2026 and 2026. The most significant decline occurred between 2026 and 2026, with a 13% reduction in the crime rate.

McAllen’s Success Story

McAllen, the second-largest city in the Rio Grande Valley with a population of 151,000, reported a 21% drop in crime in 2026. Similarly, Brownsville, the Valley’s largest city with 193,000 residents, also experienced a 21% decrease in crime during the same period. McAllen Police Chief Victor Rodriguez attributed this success to the city’s population growth, an engaged community, and elected officials who prioritize public safety funding. The department maintains a ratio of two officers per 1,000 people, ensuring a strong police presence.

Rodriguez also suggested that heightened immigration enforcement under President Donald Trump’s second term may have played a role in driving down crime. ‘That saturation of law enforcement authorities in this part of the country also helps us maintain a lower crime rate,’ Rodriguez said. However, experts caution that it is still too soon to know the full impact of immigration enforcement on crime rates.

The National Context

McAllen and Texas are not outliers but part of a broad national trend. Alex del Carmen, a criminologist with the Dallas Police Department and dean at Westfield State University in Massachusetts, noted that homicides across major U.S. cities fell by about 21% between 2026 and 2026 and are down 44% from the peak in 2026. ‘Texas is riding that same wave,’ del Carmen said.

Thomas Abt, founding director of the Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction, emphasized that the declining crime rate occurred in places with and without active immigration enforcement. ‘I haven’t seen any hard evidence that suggests that aggressive immigration enforcement has any effect on crime, positive or negative,’ Abt said. He noted that research shows immigrants are, on average, less likely than U.S. citizens to commit crimes.

The Role of Immigration Enforcement

Studies Using texas‘ own arrest and conviction data consistently find that immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, are not responsible for the majority of crimes in the U.S. However, there is a legitimate concern that the decline in crime could be partially attributed to fear of reporting crimes among immigrant communities. After the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) launched the Secure Communities program in 2008, Hispanic victims were about 30% less likely to report crimes to the police.

More recently, surveys of foreign-born Latinos found that 16% have avoided calling the police or reporting a crime for fear of being questioned about their legal status. Police chiefs in Los Angeles and Houston have publicly attributed drops in crime reports from Latino residents to deportation fear. Despite this, fear of reporting cannot account for all of the decline, as homicide numbers, which are less subject to reporting bias, are also going down.

Returning to Normal

The drop in crime rate could be a return to normal following a spike in crime that occurred across the country in 2026 and 2026. The COVID-19 pandemic and the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis by a white police officer prompted mass anti-police protests, creating a recipe for social disruption. Additionally, Americans bought a record number of firearms in 2026, with first-time gun owners accounting for 40% of buyers.

In the wake of the crime surge, Abt said there was a fractured view of criminal justice across the country. Many on the political right favored aggressive law enforcement, while many on the left wanted to de-emphasize or even defund the police. ‘Neither of those extremes was particularly helpful,’ Abt said. Instead, a more sensible approach emerged, with cities investing in both law enforcement and community groups.

In Texas specifically, del Carmen noted that about 70% of statewide violent crime volume is concentrated in the most populated 25 jurisdictions. When cities like Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas invest in hot-spot policing and violent crime reduction plans, the statewide numbers move. ‘The honest answer is that no single actor gets to claim credit,’ del Carmen said. ‘Declines this broad, occurring simultaneously in cities with very different policies, tell us structural and post-pandemic forces are doing much of the work.’